The climate crisis also threatens our crops and our food security: it is estimated that in the next thirty years many of the areas now used for coffee cultivation will no longer be able to be cultivated
We already know that the climate crisis poses a real threat to numerous species of animals, who see their habitats destroyed and their survival severely tested by ever higher temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme heat phenomena. However, the climate crisis is also threatening plants and plant species, undermining our food security.
The crops currently grown in the hottest regions of the planet - such as coffee, cocoa, peanuts and avocados - are in fact threatened by excessive heat and, according to experts in this study recently published, they could be reduced by as much as half within the next thirty years.
These are very important crops, which contribute substantially to the sustenance of small agricultural communities in different parts of the world, and which have a duration of several decades: therefore, in these cases, long-term agricultural planning cannot fail to take into account the unexpected impacts of climate change.
The case of coffee
The cultivation of coffee plants - in particular, of the arabica variety - it is the one that most of all will suffer the worst consequences of the increase in temperatures in the coming years: as shown by various studies, strong reductions in climatic suitability are expected in most of the regions where the variety is currently grown. It is Latin America, which is home to 5 of the 10 largest coffee producers in the world - first of all, Brazil.
©Inter-American Development Bank
In the past, the production of coffee was considered a very profitable activity, which allowed many families and entire communities to earn a living: it is estimated that currently the coffee industry employs more than 14 million Latin Americans.
However, while the production of the plant is destined to decrease, as well as due to the climate crisis, also due to parasite infestations that damage crops, the demand for this raw material is constantly increasing and is experiencing a new flowering, thanks to the growing demands from the new Asian middle class.
The most affected by the "coffee crisis" are the small and micro producers, that is, those who own plantations of less than two hectares: for them, growing coffee makes less and less - in many cases it even represents a loss. This is why this production is replaced in many cases with other more resilient and profitable crops; alternatively, small producers completely abandon their agricultural activity to devote themselves to something else.
In short, the trend is very clear and, if we don't do something right away, it will also be irreversible. Climate change experts agree that global temperatures will continue to rise during this century, with increases of between + 1,5 ° C and + 4,5 ° C in the warmer months. To this we must add increasingly extreme and unpredictable rainy phenomena, alternating with periods of drought.
The global increase in temperatures will cause a significant reduction in the area dedicated to coffee cultivation, up to 50% of the total by 2050. Alongside this trend, albeit to a lesser extent, the climate crisis will create new areas of the planet in which so far not it was possible to grow coffee suitable for this cultivation.
These transformations will affect different regions, at higher latitudes, such as Nicaragua, where the optimal altitude for growing coffee is estimated to rise from 1.200 meters above sea level to 1.600 meters above sea level by mid-century. .
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Fonti: PlosONE / Inter-American Development Bank
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