New climate models reveal faster increases in Arctic precipitation than previously predicted
He is about to end up run over, his mother saves himNew climate models hypothesized by scientists reveal faster and more consistent increases in Arctic precipitation than previously predicted
The world we know is changing under the pressure of global warming and such changes are occurring at an ever more rapid and unpredictable pace: in the Arctic, for example, many of the once frozen areas have already disappeared, liquefied and dispersed in ocean water; permasfrost (ice once considered "perennial") is also melting, releasing highly polluting methane, among other things. But it is not only the landscape that is transformed, it is the entire ecosystem that is affected by the devastating effects of climate change.
A new study by a US team of researchers predicts that in the near future - as early as 2060 or 2070 - the Arctic will begin its transition towards a climate increasingly characterized by rains and less and less from the snow. The gradual shift to rainy weather is not unexpected, but researchers are shining a spotlight on the unexpected speed at which this transformation will take place in the coming years. The study is based on cross-reading global climate models, developed by researchers around the world, which are better able to simulate Arctic precipitation and offer insights into ways in which rain and snow patterns may change in the coming decades.
According to the new models, the Arctic Circle could warm up faster than expected from previous studies; Furthermore, the region's precipitation patterns may be more sensitive to small amounts of warming than scientists previously suspected. Even if, at best, the governments of the world manage to contain the rise in temperatures to within + 1,5 ° C foreseen by the Paris Climate Agreements (2015) and by the recent COP26, this will not prevent the Arctic from passing to a rainy climate.
(Read also: This video shows the dramatic melting of an Icelandic glacier in just 40 days)
But let's see what these models describe: if the increase in global temperatures reached + 1,5 ° C, rainfalls would be experienced on the seas of Greenland and Norway; if temperatures reach + 2 ° C by the end of the century, however, western Russia and some regions of the European Arctic will also be affected by the rains; finally, if the increase in temperatures were 3 ° C (the most plausible forecast, following the curve of the rise we are already witnessing), most of the regions on the Pacific side of the Arctic Circle will experience rains. Obviously, the snow will not completely disappear: during the colder months, all areas will still be affected by snowfall but, on an annual average, the amount of rain that will fall will be greater than that of snow.
@ Nature Communications
These changes in Arctic precipitation could have profound consequences not only for the delicate Arctic ecosystem, but also for other regions of the world. If we consider that the whiteness of the snow helps to reflect the sun's rays away from the earth's atmosphere, thus helping to lower temperatures, it will be easy to imagine that less snow will accelerate the warming process (which is why the melting of Arctic snow is one of the main reasons so the region is warming up much faster than the rest of the planet). Furthermore, the absence of snow would represent the disappearance of habitat for many polar animals, such as bears or caribou.
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Fonte: Nature Communications
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