By the end of the century, the price of beer could skyrocket. And the fault lies with climate change. This is revealed by a new study, led by researchers from the University of California, Irvine
By the end of the century, the price of beer could skyrocket. And the fault lies with climate change. She reveals a new study, led by researchers from the University of California, Irvine.
Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume but is likely to be accessible only to a few given the high future costs. Drought and heat waves, exacerbated by human-related global warming, scientists say, will lead to a sharp decline in crop yields of barley, the main ingredient in beer.
Using a variety of models, they demonstrated the potential for higher beer prices by considering scenarios based on current and projected levels of fossil fuels and carbon dioxide emissions. At worst, parts of the world where barley is grown - including the Northern Great Plains, Canadian prairies, Europe, Australia, and the Asian steppe - will live more frequent periods of drought along with heat waves, causing a decline in agricultural yields from 3 to 17%.
"Current levels of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 pollution - as usual - will lead to this worst case scenario, with more climatic extremes negatively impacting the global beer basket," said co-author Nathan Mueller. “Our study showed that even modest warming will lead to an increase in drought and excessive heat events in barley growing areas. "
According to the hypothesis, the supply of beer could decrease by 16%, an amount comparable to US consumption. Future climate and tariff conditions could therefore put the drink out of the reach of hundreds of millions of people around the world.
Only 17% of the planet's barley is used in beer production. Most of it is collected as livestock feed. This creates a conflict in the decades to come: will producers give priority to animals, which are destined for our consumption, among other things, over human drinkers? By introducing a decline in barley supply into their overall equilibrium model, researchers have consistently found that grain destined for brewing will decrease even more.
The study, published in Nature Plants, also indicated which ones countries will most penalized from price increases. By and large, prices will go up the most in richer, beer-loving states like Belgium, Canada, Denmark and Poland. For example, during drought years, Irish residents may have to pay 25 euros more to buy a pack of 6 compared to current costs.
Beer consumption is expected to drop in poorer countries, such as China, but the US may also experience a drop in consumption.
"The world is facing many life-threatening impacts from climate change, so people who have to spend a little more to drink beer may seem mundane by comparison," said co-author Steven Davis, associate professor at the University. of California, Irvine.
Climate change is claiming another victim.
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Francesca Mancuso
