Prices halved and energy needs in Europe satisfied by 12%: this is the forecast for the photovoltaic market that emerges from the study carried out by the EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) in collaboration with the company AT Kearney. Provided, however, that a radical regulatory, technical and structural change occurs in the reference framework.
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Prices halved e 12% of energy needs in Europe met: this is the forecast for the photovoltaic market that emerges from the study carried out by the EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) in collaboration with the company A.T. Kearney. Provided, however, that a radical regulatory, technical and structural change occurs in the reference framework.
In the 120 pages of SET For 2020, after taking stock of the current situation, the possible scenarios that lie ahead between now and 2020 are illustrated with figures, graphs and analyzes, for what is already the most rapidly spreading renewable source (according to to the document in 2008, the 4,5 GW installed in Europe represented 19% of all electricity installed in the continent during the year).
Drawn up with the contribution of key figures in the sector, the SET For 2020, which will be released at the end of June, but can already be booked on the website, includes three different hypotheses based on the different political and economic conditions. If the current conditions persist, photovoltaics, currently at 1%, in 2020 could cover between 4% and 6% of European electricity needs.
A percentage that would double to 12% of total energy consumption in the most ambitious hypothesis, the Paradigm Shift, reachable with a commitment from both the European Union and the individual national governments in create a favorable environment around them in financial and regulatory terms or in carrying out some key actions, such as sector support incentives.
But in order for it to really take off, the commitment is also required of the photovoltaic industry itself called to invest in research necessary to reach the most ambitious target and improve the technological and commercial supply chain.
Everyone's effort could lead to an increase in efficiency of 30%, but above all to halve costs with the aim of achieving a lower cost of 10cent € / kWh by 2020 for industrial plants and under i 15cent €/kWh for residential systems.
All of this would result in a net economic benefit for exponential EU countries compared to the market penetration of photovoltaics which can be calculated in terms of CO2 emissions avoided, lower volatility of energy prices and lower losses on the grid.
"The generation of photovoltaic electricity will be competitive in some parts of Southern Europe as early as next year, in the event that more favorable conditions for the development of the market are adopted", this is the promise of Dr. Winfried Hoffmann, President of the EPIA.
