By 2070, a third of the planet's plant and animal species could become extinct due to climate change
He is about to end up run over, his mother saves himBy 2070, a third of the planet's plant and animal species could become extinct due to climate change. The apocalyptic scenario, very worrying, is the result of a research conducted by the University of Arizona.
Hundreds of plants and animals in the spotlight of scientists, predicting a mass extinction for a third of them: the projections were conducted on the basis of available data on growth rates, estimates on the future climate and information on recent extinctions. With a very sad result: by 2070 the Earth will be much poorer.
The study is probably the first to estimate large-scale extinction patterns due to climate change using this data: to estimate future extinction rates, we turned to the recent past to understand how and what could happen again. 538 species and 581 sites worldwide, at least 10 years apart e 44% of them had already become extinct in one or more places on the planet.
"By analyzing the change of 19 climate variables at each site, we were able to determine which variables drive local extinctions and how many changes a population can tolerate without becoming extinct." populations can move to try to escape the rising temperatures. And by putting all this information together for each species, we can come up with detailed estimates of global extinction rates for hundreds of plant and animal species. "
The study used maximum temperatures in the summer as the key variable that can best predict whether a population will go extinct. But surprisingly, the researchers found that annual average temperatures showed small changes at locally extinct sites.
"This means that using variations in annual mean temperatures to predict extinction from climate change could be positively misleading," says John J. Wiens, another co-author.
Conversely, scientists have found that most species will not be able to escape quickly enough to avoid extinction, but also that many others may be able to tolerate some increases in maximum temperatures, even if only to a certain extent. point.
Photo: Madagascar frog, a species suffering from climate change © John J. Wiens
Species loss projections are similar for plants and animals, but extinctions are expected to be two to four times more likely in the tropics compared to temperate regions.
So save us? Wrong!
"This is a big issue, because most of the plant and animal species are found in the tropics, ”says Román-Palacios.
Is the apocalypse coming? Clearly all this will strongly depend on what temperatures will be reached in the near future.
"In a way it's like one 'Choose your adventure'- Wiens alert - If we join the Paris Agreement to combat climate change, we could lose fewer than two in 10 animal and plant species on Earth by 2070. But if humans cause greater temperature rises, we could lose more than a third or even half".
Which adventure will we choose then?
The study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Read also:
- How and why climate change affects our health
- 10 events that will make you admit the existence of climate change in your home
Source: University of Arizona / Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
