Every Day's an Adventure with Marmol

In his most recent "Stat of the Week," John Dewan of Bill James Online (subscription required) decided to find out if he could statistically predict whether the "good" or "bad" version of Carlos Marmol had shown up after the Cubs closer had thrown 10 pitches.

Dewan rightly points out that Marmol is unhittable. Batters hit .169 against him in 2007, .135 in '08, .170 in '09, and .148 this year. Furthermore, Marmol has struck out an amazing 91 batters in 48 1/3 innings - that's almost two strikeouts per inning.

Dewan's hypothesis was that the more balls Marmol threw in his first 10 pitches, the less effective he would be. The measure of his effectiveness was determined by Dewan to be the OPS of opposing hitters after his first 10 pitches.

The results did not prove Dewan's theory:

Carlos Marmol's At-Bats After 10 Pitches

Balls/AB/OPS

0,1,2/76/.548

3,4,5/335/.562

6,7,8/104/.556

"The good news for Cubs fans is that regardless of the number of balls thrown in the first ten pitches, Marmol is remarkably effective and consistent," Dewan wrote.

My observations lead me to believe that Marmol's success hinges on the effectiveness of his slider. When he gets his slider over or opposing hitters chase it, he's lights out. When hitters lay off the pitch and he is unable to throw it for strikes, he has trouble.