Every Day A Little Life or Death

I'm not normally a numbers guy but something about baseball demands that you can crunch, remember, recite and generally be conversant with some general sense of the way they all add up. It's not necessary to enjoying or even earning a living analyzing the game -- Joe Morgan the other night came out and admitted, somewhat astonishingly, that he's not much for statistics -- but it does enhance the experience, say, if you know going in that Craig Biggio is a "Cub killer,'' as is Chris Capuano and....you get the idea. I can't immediately summon whatever target Barry Bonds is aiming for in his chase of Henry Aaron's all-time home run mark this season, but I know it's within reasonable range. I remember 714 and 56--individual milestones buried deep in the memory bank. So was 61 until Sosa, McGwire and Bonds smashed it in the last decade.

But baseball is above all a team game in which individuals accumulate various statistics. None of the individual stats means a Tinker's damn compared to the team's performance over a 162-game season. It's all about wins and losses, and what it will take to qualify for the postseason. Ninety wins ought to be enough to win the N.L. Central or at least make the wild card. After the Cubs finished a dreadful 66-96 last year, it's expecting a lot for them to reach that total, but they can get to .500 or above, or that's the hope. Anything near .500 keeps you with a shot at the wild card through the summer, basically. I don't mind the wild card but it has probably diluted some aspects of the game. There are no 100-win powerhouses in sight, and I can imagine not a single team in the entire National League winning that many games. The Cubs have never reached the century mark in the modern era; it would be wonderful to see one year, but let's not go crazy.

So the Cubs are shooting for a range somewhere between 80 and 90 wins, 95 if you're a complete optimist or a complete fool. So when I see an early season record of 3-5, I don't feel too good about things. I "project'' out that total over the 162 games (I had to grab a calculator), the Cubs are on a worse pace than last year: 61-101. People like to say it's a "long season'' or "it's still early,'' and it assuredly is, but just about 5 percent of the year is gone with mediocre results at best. I've been seeing bad signs from Pinella's Cubs -- inconsistent offense, soft middle relief, inability to "manufacture runs,'' but the starting pitching looks OK. If the offense can get on a roll, they could hold their own and then some. Still, with every loss, every game gone, a little of our hope for the long haul and the ultimate goal of making it all the way to the World Series, dies a little. (Maybe this is where the term "diehard'' fan comes from? I know I've died a thousand deaths with this team over the years; more than 3,000 of them, actually, if you care to count since I began following them closely in 1970). Another baseball truism, which may or may not be true: the losses in April count just as much as the ones in September. Maybe they just don't hurt quite as much because you think time is still on your side.

A three-game losing streak can be overcome in a hurry with a four- or five-game winning streak, however, especially at this time of year when you can go from "bad'' to "good'' within a week. There's nothing like a lengthy winning streak to brighten the picture, but when did the Cubs last have one? a really big one of 10-plus games? I can't remember one, but I can remember the losing streaks of seven-games or so that besotted the 2005 season. And last year just seemed like one long losing streak unpunctuated by wins. You can only do it with a rock-solid rotation -- or an offensive juggernaut -- and I'm hoping for both but counting on neither from this year's Cubs..

So when is a good time or fair point to judge how a team is really doing or going to do?? Traditionally, if you are not overanalytical and fretting over every loss, baseball takes pause at three markers or "guideposts,'' four if you want to add the All-Star game:

• Memorial Day (roughly a third of the season, this year barring rainouts the Cubs will have played 50 games by then and we'll pretty much know if they've got a competitive team or not--competitive meaning a contender for the playoffs. Hoped-for record: 35-25);


• July 4 (halfway point just about perfectly this year, although the All-Star break a few days later is another good place to take stock. It is at this point also that teams pretty much know if they're going to be "buyers'' or "sellers'' for trades at the end of the month. Hoped-for record 50-31);


• Labor Day (I think it's a little too late here to determine much, but you'll know if you're in for a final month of meaningful games or a time to call up the prospects and "wait til next year'' --again). With the wild card and league parity, at least two-thirds of the league is still in the race in September. I realize some of these numbers are pie-in-the-sky, but I also know 50 wins by the All-Star Break has always been very special.

One of the more incisive comments made by former manager Dusty Baker (he slipped in a few) was that he liked to see his teams win 15 games a month (if you can do it, that translates to the 90--win mark). Throw in a couple months when you get hot and maybe push up to 20 wins and you've got a 100-win ballclub. This isn't a bad formula, but it's easier said than done. Earl Weaver of the phenomenally successful Oriole teams in the '60s and '70s used to preach about winning each individual series, taking two out of three (the Cubs have lost 2 of their first three after yesterday's washout). Personally, I hate being below .500 at any point for it signifies failure, below the watered-down level of mediocrity (which .500, winning just as many as you lose, still means to some of us). So the Cubs have some digging to do to get their heads back up above water and onto the right, winning track if they're going to make this a worthwhile season. Early results can be foolers, of course; last year's team got 13 April wins and then, after the Derrek Lee injury, plummeted pitifully.

After 10 games it's really too early to take stock, especially with this wacky weather; 20 games is a fair test, as is 25-30, roughly a month of the season. I hope to be over .500 and building by then, let's say, by Mother's Day. (All these guideposts are arbitrary, of course, and can be wiped out by baseball's beautiful unpredictability, a long hot stretch or a wretched collapse. Believe it or not, back before the war the Cubs once swept to a pennant with an amazing 21 straight victories.) But to really make this season one worth cheering, the Cubs simply have to start winning more often than they lose -- and keep on winning on into October. You can divide the season into segments, series, months, chunks, however you like, but winning sure as hell beats losing any and every day.