On Mark Prior (Vol. 2)

As Zambrano builds his case for a Cy Young award -- tied for second-best record, sixth in ERA, first in strikeouts and opponents batting average -- our thoughts turn yet again tonight to Mark Prior. It’s the familiar dual refrain: ‘What If’ on the one hand, and ‘What Now’ on the other. In a little while, Prior will pitch again, and many of our thoughts will be elsewhere than the game at hand. Elsewhere, as in trying to balance our skepticism with our optimism.

I was out for drinks last night, and a girl I know who did her undergrad in Boston was telling me about Fenway, a ballpark I’ve never been to. Knowing my ties to Chicago, she turned the conversation towards the Cubs, and how she remembers a girlfriend of hers out there who literally cried during Game 6 of the ’03 NLCS. I had to tell the story: “I was there.”

You don’t understand, I told her. This was the single most important game of my life, all of our lives, a Cubs’ fan’s dream, and Mark Prior was pitching. The Cubs had drafted him with their top pick, the second pick overall after the Twins All-Star catcher. He was too good for the minor leagues, and he was in the show before we knew it. He figured his way right into the rotation, and by the end of 2002 he already had a complete game under his belt and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost 4:1. We finally had our guy.

And then in 2003, he was even better than we could believe. 18-6, almost 5:1 Ks to walks, ERA 2.43. Three years out, people might forget just how good he was that year. It all led to the playoffs, and it all led up to that series. One game to win, and this was the win for which destiny had brought him to us, millions of adoring fans, poised on every pitch. The whole game, it was going perfectly. He had it that night. It wasn’t just a regular game. It wasn’t just a regular playoff game. It wasn’t just a series-clinching game. With Prior pitching, it was more. Until it wasn’t.

I hated telling the end of that story; the emotions -- the “tangible void” as I called it -- are still there.

I can remember the first time I saw him pitch. My roommate and I left work in the suburbs and met a friend of ours. He worked downtown, and in those days (2002) you could still get day-of-game walkup tickets on a whim. He got three at the box office just a few rows up from the Cubs’ bullpen catcher on the third base side. I remember two things from that evening very vividly. One was Kyle Farnsworth warming up in the bullpen: the whistle of the baseball, the snap of the glove, and the realization that I couldn’t hit one of his pitches even if I started swinging before he started his windup.

Second was Mark Prior’s curveball. It was -- he was -- the real deal. As good as rumored; up to the hype. It was a perfect Wrigley evening, the Cubs won in the late innings, and we all knew that something was building. Not that season; that season was already done. But soon... *sigh*

Nowadays, the two words you hear to describe Prior most often are brittle and fragile. While one cannot anticipate plays like the comebacker off his elbow and the end-over-end flip with Marcus Giles, there was also the ankle trouble, the shoulder trouble, and the mysterious illness, all of which set him back the last three seasons. Just as his fastball was regaining its life a few weeks ago, he hurt his side and was back on the DL. All we can do is sigh, again and again.

In some ways, Prior receives a lot of negativity in conjunction with Kerry Wood, owing to the synchronicity of their troubles. Watching other broadcasters on the MLB Extra Innings package, it’s always the two of them listed together: Prior and Wood, injured. While it seems fairly clear -- and here, I’m resigning myself to face facts, sympathies aside -- that barring a medical breakthrough Wood’s next contract will involve him in a bullpen, Prior is treated almost like collateral. As in, since Wood is done for the season yet again, neither one of them will ever be a healthy starting pitcher.

Which is, of course, unfair to Prior. Regardless of what happens with Kerry Wood, Mark Prior can still be a dominant big league starter. I believe this not only because I need to believe it, but also because he still has that curveball.

A year ago I wrote the first “On Mark Prior” column, where I suggested that his attitude and demeanor showed he still had it. I suggested that the other shoe hadn’t dropped. I suggested a lot of things about how good he was about to be as he turned the corner on all those problems.

So has the other shoe dropped, given what's happened? Maybe conventional wisdom is that it has -- that Prior is too injury-prone to ever put a complete season together. But I’m not buying it. Not as an optimistic Cubs fan, and not as a rational skeptic. You just can’t teach the ability that Mark Prior has; and I haven’t seen any evidence that he’s lost it for good. Strikeout-to-walk ratios like his are not happenstance.

Tonight, I doubt that he will have that old demeanor, except maybe in a few at-bats. It would be nice, but let’s not kid ourselves. But maybe we’ll see a glimmer. If nothing else though, I’m suggesting again that it’s not yet time to give up on Prior. We owe it to ourselves to hang on with him, knowing full well that it could burn us all over again. Still, there’s that chance for magic, and if we didn’t still believe in that, why would we ever watch these games in the first place?