Maybe It Wasn't Only A Career Year

I’ll get right to the point: how come no one is suggesting that Derrek Lee will replicate his production from last season?



Everywhere I read, the idea is that we shouldn’t count on Lee to do it again, because that was a career season, a once-in-a-lifetime kind of thing. Maybe that’s right, and certainly there’s no way we should expect such great numbers, being that they were exceptional in every sense of the word. It was the best season ever put up by a Cubs first baseman, I’d suggest, even if that still wasn't enough to keep some people from becoming entirely negative towards the Cubs and Jim Hendry and whomever else. (Partially negative, OK, because they definitely underachieved; but entirely might be a bit overboard, don't you think?)

The thing is, even as early as last May, I didn’t think Lee was just on a hot streak. At least from what I could tell, he wasn’t playing like a guy on a hot streak. He was playing like one who had finally achieved something sort of like Zen balance, where what has always been possible becomes actual because it’s the right time and place and circumstance and mindset and all that. I was as cautious as everyone else, but at some point we have to trust our own eyes, and that’s what I was seeing.

The stat crunchers can tell you that Lee has often played like that for stretches, just never for a whole season. The main difference was that he started out hot, whereas earlier in his career he had always had down Aprils. So do we have any reason to expect that he’ll have another hot April?

Well, in watching the WBC game again today, I watched Lee hit his third homerun. All three have been solid hits, one of them even to right-center. Today’s was the most impressive, though, a no-doubter on a sweet swing. He was fooled by the pitch before, made an adjustment, and connected. If Lee is doing that already against solid pitching, I like the chances of him having another good April.

He also tailed off average-wise a bit last season towards the end, although it seemed to me that was because there was zero protection in the lineup, and he wasn’t getting many pitches to hit. So maybe his numbers will depend on Ramirez being healthy and maybe Barrett or Walker hitting well, but even without those guys hitting well behind him all the time last season, and a Burnitz tailspin, he still outslugged the entire league.

His RBIs should be up, too, even if HRs and AVG drop a bit. I mean, there were so few RBI opportunities – relatively – for Lee that it was sad. Sad, in that it was something of a wasted season. But that’s only true if it turns out that it was indeed a career year. And I’m not convinced.

Cautious? Sure. I mean, numbers don’t lie, and last season was a statistical leap. Like I said, we have no justification for expecting such a repeat performance, and we should not be disappointed if his numbers are down closer to his career averages. But while numbers don’t lie, they also do not predict perfectly.

Even already, he just does not look like a .280 hitter. His swing is sound, and he’s making adjustments. He fouled off a couple of great pitches in another at-bat, sliders down and away to which he committed early and probably should have missed entirely. It was just like he was doing last season.

Not to mention his demeanor. He’s carrying himself like he belongs among all these other stars. Which he does, but still – confidence means something. It’s not arrogance and it’s not showiness, it’s just confidence. He does not seem star struck in the least at this WBC, and while the WBC is not quite an All-Star team, I take it as a good sign for how Lee is approaching his game.

I’m getting giddy just thinking about it. The Cubs might just have a bona fide superstar again, and this time it won’t be a player who thinks he’s bigger than the game. How cool will that be? A guy about which there is nothing we have to take with a grain of salt; about which there is no "that's just how Derrek is" caveats like there were with Sammy. A guy that we can really like in every aspect.

Maybe I shouldn’t get my hopes up. Maybe I should be extra cautious, and listen to reason, ie numbers and analyses. Maybe I shouldn’t open myself up for disappointment. But I can’t help it. I keep watching Lee hit, and I keep seeing him do everything right.

So the smart money can put itself down on Lee tapering back to normal a bit, and along with that they can put the Cubs being a bit short of a playoff run. If I was looking at standard deviations I might be doing the same thing. But in just a few times watching Lee hit, I’m starting to become convinced that last year wasn’t a fluke. Lee has arrived, and we’re darn lucky to be watching him help our team. It may be blind Cubbie Fan Optimism, but if I can't help myself, I can't think of any better guy on which to pin it, especially after watching him hit these first few WBC games.