Surveying at the Solstice

Today was the winter solstice, which means that for a sabian like me, the worst is behind us. I mean that I’m a sabian literarily, not literally. I don’t actually worship the sun, or other heavenly bodies. It’s just a good word to drop for people like me who think that circadian rhythms are in large part at the mercy of the cosmos.

From here, anyway, we all turn the corner. There will be more daylight; there will be Christmas, and then New Year’s Eve; there will be the Super Bowl; there will be spring training. As of today, time is on baseball fans’ side.

This solstice finds me feeling more sprightly than usual, no doubt about it, and part of that is the Cubs. I was premature last offseason in thinking that there was reason to be excited if nothing else because it couldn’t get much worse than 2004. And, actually, it didn’t get worse; it just stayed bad, so here were are again: it can’t get much worse than 2004 & 2005.

Jacque Jones for Jeromy Burnitz... ok. Why not? He’s younger, fine defensively, and Burnitz didn’t even reach the RBI levels I thought his career had plateaued at. Plus, Jones had two big moments last year against the White Sox that make someone like me excited. An old roommate of mine called me one night last August to see if I was watching the White Sox / Twins game because Freddy Garcia was taking a no-hit bid deep. There hadn’t been a no-hitter all year, and he knows how much I get excited about performances like that. So, I tuned in just in time to see Jacque Jones hit a solo HR in the 8th.

That’s moxie. You want a guy like that on your team, especially near the poles of your lineup where an unexpected lift resonates more deeply. Just to prove it wasn’t a fluke, this step-up, I was at Comiskey when Jones answered Joe Crede’s HR off of Johan Santana in the bottom of the 6th by cranking one of his own off of Brendon McCarthy to tie a game that would ultimately go into the 11th inning tied at 1. Numbers can’t quantify what the homerun felt like to the White Sox fans that evening, since at that point they were slipping seemingly into a chasm with unnaturally strong gravity. Jones’ HR was a big hit, squelching the Sox attempt for momentum.

“Jones can hit anybody's fast ball,” White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said that night (or maybe the next morning). “I think that was a bad mistake throwing that ball to him.” You can’t say the same about Burnitz, who went through stretches last year where his swing was late. They both strike out plenty, but that’s plagued right field in Wrigley for my entire adult life and then some. This is not an excuse or a sweeping aside of the point that so many strikeouts are unacceptable, but at this point, it's not a dealbreaker in my mind.

Then there’s the fact that Jones was drafted by the Twins, which still counts for something in my book. Guys drafted by the Twins or the Braves or the Expos usually have something about them that goes beyond the numbers. Those organizations scout and develop well, so if you’re looking for a reason to like a player, that’s as good of one as any beyond the numbers.

Now we factor in the fact that two of the teams who have played the best, hungriest baseball in the last 5 years or so are the Marlins and the Twins, and we add in that a rookie like Murton is clearly going to try to establish himself as starting a big-league career, and I think that all of a sudden there’s an outfield that is going to be eager to play every day with verve and fire and something to prove. When’s the last time that happened? Not with Sosa, or Patterson, or Platoon; a younger Burnitz might have lit such a spark, but not last year.

I also like that the outfield is ready without trading Mark Prior. Let’s get one thing straight: we’re not ready to give up on Prior yet, and call him fragile or injury prone or anything else. No way. The Cubs need a face and a leader and a personality and a bona fide superstar ace, and Prior can still be all of that. I still think Kerry Wood is the guy best primed to rally the players behind him to fuel a winning streak, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be two, or three, or four on those twilight nights when Maddux achieves his form. Anyway, my point was that Prior is still as valuable as anyone in the league; I mean, who would you trade him for, even up? No one jumps to my mind, at least.

Of course, I’m not really thinking analytically, and I’m not trying to think that way. There are certainly arguments to consider and reasons to doubt and all that’s fine, but on both sides of the coin forecasting is a dubious business. Still, aren’t there lots of reasons to be more excited than last year?

Last year, a supposedly recovering Mark Prior and questions about hidden issues; this year, a healthy Mark Prior. Last year, an immature Zambrano; this year, a less immature Zambrano geared up for the World Baseball Challenge or whatever. Last year, Maddux winding down; this year, Maddux on his twilight voyage. Last year, question marks about Kerry Wood; this year, a fresh start for Kerry Wood. Last year, Sergio Mitre and Jon Leicester making spot starts; this year, Jerome Williams and Glendon Rusch and Rich Hill, whose curveball is still a better single pitch than anything most pitchers have.

Last year, Jeromy Burnitz and Jason DuBois and Todd Hollandsworth and Corey Patterson; this year, Matt Murton and Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones. Another year of experience for Barrett. And there’s John Mabrey and Jerry Hairston and Neifi Perez all as utility men – three such players where most teams would be lucky to have two. (No one is saying Neifi isn’t a superb utility man.)

In fact, the only downgrade is at shortstop, Nomar to Cedeno, and while it’s going to make me cringe when Nomar hits .335 this year in Los Angeles, there’s no choice but to chalk it up at this point.

I hesitate to even bring it up, but I also think this is a team that is better suited to Dusty. Immediately you recoil, saying that it’s the managers’ job to suit himself to the situation at hand, and you’re not wrong about that. Still, this is shaping up to be a team that has guys who will sort themselves into roles by virtue of what they’re good at, rather than the manager trying to make the puzzle pieces fit into unnatural slots. In short, barring the extraneous, if Dusty can’t win more games with this team, then some of those people yelling for his head might actually have a case.

Anyway, tomorrow it will be light out longer, and even longer the day after that, and before we know it the equinox will be here in time for opening day, so if nothing else my anticipation is right on schedule, which is more than enough for now.