On Mark Prior

I wonder, is Mark Prior ready to throw a no-hitter? I'm not talking about his health, because he looked darn close if he wasn't 100% yesterday. (Plus, his stuff is good at 85%, and the Pirates are only like 85% of a major league lineup anyway, so it balances out.) I'm not talking about his stuff, either, because his stuff has always been good enough. I'm talking about his career trajectory.

In retrospect, maybe the best thing that could have happened yesterday was the pair of errors in the third inning. Prior gave up an RBI single to Lawton, the first hit for the Pirates, scoring a run that was even more unearned than most unearned runs. Prior didn't allow another hit until the eighth inning. He was in control, and only he could beat himself. He had mechanical problems in the fifth, where he lost his release point to the tune of a pair of walks, but that was it.

Lawton's hit (I'm speculating) avoided a lot of pressure. Had Prior taken a shutout or especially a no-hitter into the eighth inning, he would have put pressure on himself to finish it off. The Pirates would have felt pressure to break it up. That one run, on one hit, was like a sedative.

It often happens that only Mark Prior can beat himself. This is rare among pitchers, because most pitchers will sometimes see their better pitches hit. When Prior throws his better pitches, hits are much rarer. This is what distinguishes him: when he throws his best, he is unhittable. Teams must depend on him making a series of a few mistakes to have a chance to win. This is why teams covet him more than most young pitchers -- more so than his intelligence, or his work ethic, or anything else.

Yet, in his career, Prior has already shown a vulnerability for the big inning. It has happened twice this year, and of course it happened in Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS. (Do I need to add "of the 2003 NLCS?") It's rare, but when it happens it's so fast that it blindsides managers and fans alike. We never see it coming, and by the time we realize what's happening it's too late to do anything. That these innings are so rare only makes them stand out even more in contrast.

Had Prior taken a no-hitter into the eighth inning yesterday, it would have raised a lot of questions about whether Dusty Baker should leave him in to try to finish it. Prior still doesn't have his complete arm strength, but a no-hitter is a no-hitter. Every impulse I have says that opportunities to complete a no-hitter -- or more so, beside the point, a perfect game -- are so rare that one should throw caution to the wind. I mean, the last no-hitter was Randy Johnson's perfect game a year ago last May. It's probably for the best that events did not raise this dilemma. I think we all would have agreed that caution would have been best yesterday, as Prior works to develop his stamina, but there would have been a part of us that wanted to see him go for it.

Then, I think about Kerry Wood's 20-strikeout game. I don't know how many times I've heard someone argue that this game raised expectations for Wood too early, stunting his development. Perhaps a no-hitter for Prior would have done the same, raising immediate expectations too high, if that's possible.

If we're honest with ourselves, most Cubs fans have acted like Red Sox fans with Prior the last few years: we were waiting for the other shoe to drop. We were waiting for some weakness to appear that would prevent him from becoming the top-tier star we crave. He seemed too good to be true, and this made us the tiniest bit suspicious.

Except, it hasn't happened. The other shoe has dropped, but Prior has fought through it. Mark Prior's career has seemed longer than it has been, in some ways, because of all the Headlines. He's given up the big innings, and he's had injuries. Yet, here he is, still primed.

Prior's demeanor on the mound seems different recently. His attitude seems different. His (already high) level of concentration seems higher. Maybe it was the latest injury, the freak event that missed ending his career by a few millimeters. Maybe he realizes how fragile every athlete's career is. I have no idea, but he seems more consistently in the zone now. (The athlete's zone, not the strike zone.) It's not just me, is it? Doesn't he carry himself on the mound just a bit differently lately?

If so, I think we're seeing the beginning of the next chapter of Mark Prior's career, where he realizes that he is as good as he seems, and begins to pitch like it. I've been reserved about predicting the top level of success for Prior, because I had yet to see him carry himself in the manner that the best pitchers in the league carry themselves. Lately, I think we're seeing him carry himself this way.

Still, let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'm not saying that we should expect a game like yesterday's from him every start. But I think we might see a start like yesterday's two out of every five -- it's too bad they can't all be against a lineup like the Pirates' -- and a quality start at least another two out of five. Somewhere along the way, we will see a no-hit bid. After all that he's been through, I think now he's ready to attack the opportunity. Not yesterday, because of his health, but very soon. A few months ago, I probably wouldn't have thought this, or at least I would have wondered, but lately, with Prior, it seems to me that there's just something new there.

I couldn't be more excited about the rest of Prior's starts in 2005, and in 2006.