Perceptions & Predictions

Whether or not this is fair, how the Cubs play this weekend will shape how the national media machine perceives them. Given that everyone else takes their cue from ESPN, and that ESPN is based in New England, I don't think it's through any neglect or bad intention that they focus their attention most on Boston and the Yankees. If you strip away the ESPN edifice, they're just people who go home and watch the game that's on TV. Hell, even if ESPN was based in LA, I think they would owe it to principle to cover the Yankees and the Red Sox -- as much as it annoys me -- because these two teams have consistently been the most exciting for the last half decade. ESPN does not hide its interest in sensation, and these two teams grow it. Fine. I can deal with that.

This meant that after the Cubs took a pair from Boston, everyone noticed that they were in strong position to take the wild card in the National League. While this is true, in my stubborn opposition to the wild card format I only look at one number in the standings: how many losses the Cubs are behind St. Louis (6). Still, earlier in the season everyone was ready to write them off, and it took the Boston series to complete the perception adjustment.

Now, it's three in Yankee Stadium during the last weekend of Spring. How the Cubs look this weekend is how much of the country will view them for a while. Whether we realize it or not, this affects our perceptions here in Chicago. It affects everyone's perception.

Personally, I'd love it if the Cubs swept the Yankees and the talking heads began talking realistically about the Cubs catching the Cardinals. I can already hear it: "With Derrek Lee having the kind of offensive season he's having, and with Wood and Prior due to return in the next few weeks, this team still has the firepower to make a run at the Cardinals..."

On the other hand, if they only win one game most people will put the Cubs on a mental shelf, filing them away to check back in a few weeks. If it didn't come at the expense of losing to the Yankees, I would say that this would be a good thing because this Cubs team seems to have developed that us-against-the-world mentality that serves them better than trying to live up to high expectations. It can be a dangerous mentality (see: September 2004) as well, but when you subtract a few large egos from the equation, a sense of accountability that ramped up when Prior got hurt has motivated this team.

Unfortunately, they can't sweep the Yankees and still harvest the chip on their shoulder, because all of a sudden they'll be legit.

Particularly for Carlos Zambrano, tonight's game is significant. In the eyes of millions more viewers even than usual, how he handles himself tonight will go a long way. If he gets frustrated, that aspect of his reputation will be blown out of proportion and there's nothing he can do about it. On the other hand, if he pitches seven or eight strong innings, scattering just a few hits, I have a feeling people all over will be talking about his maturation progress. I'm not saying that this is how it should be, but it's how it is; and even if he says it doesn't affect him, I don't buy it, exactly. I think Zambrano could benefit from some positive exposure, and I think he's ready to pitch the kind of game that deserves it. We'll see tonight.

It's a big series for Glendon Rusch, too. Saturday's game is on national TV, and if Rusch puts up another great game, people will start to notice. So far, he's thrown nearly completely under the radar, despite being 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and only 3 HRs allowed this season. Now's his chance to attract attention, to get people to say, "Wait a second. This guy is pitching really well." If he wins another one, you might even hear someone say that "If this guy had started more than eight games already, we might be talking about Glendon Rusch as a possible all star candidate, which is hard to believe after the type of season he had just two years ago..."

I guess what I'm trying to say is that whether we like it or not, and whether it's fair or not, this is not just another series. No team is larger than the game, but the Yankees still always shoot for the moon and come closer than everyone else. We all hate it, but that's their style and they're not going to change any time soon. All the "take it one game at a time" soundbytes in the world can't change the fact that this weekend is a little bit bigger.

Still, the timing on this series is good for the Cubs. They're still loose. They've only played in one 1-run game so far in June, and it was the 7-6 comeback win over the Red Sox on national TV. The only 2-run game was when Mitre out-duelled (!) Halladay. The Cubs are due for some pressure. So, let's see how they respond.

The thing is, I'm done with predictions. At no point in the season has this team played how I expected. At times they've been worse, and at times they've been better. I'm not going to waste my energy on that. I'm just going to enjoy the feeling I have that the Cubs are ready for a big series like this one.