Don't Panic

"Why not? Your position appears quite hopeless."

There's a lot of renewed buzz around the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, which I enjoy because I logged entirely too many hours playing the game on my Apple IIC growing up. If you try DON'T PANIC, this is what the game tells you. The joke -- if you think it's funny -- is that your position is always quite hopeless. Everyone is one unforseen event away from the end, except that for the most part life goes on. This is why the 'guide' is said to begin with the simple advice, "Don't panic." When you think about it, it's about as good as advice gets. How can you enjoy yourself if you're panicked?

It's tempting to get caught up in an event, a moment even, thereby losing your proper perspective. We all do this, all the time, mostly because the world at large is so large as to be incomprehensible unless we narrow our focus. The problem comes when we narrow our focus too far. It seems to me that Cubs fans have been doing this the last few weeks. It looks bad, sure, but only if you look at it in a certain way.

That's why before Sunday's game I wrote in my game notes that I had decided to dub this "big picture perspective" week. Actually, here's my note:

"I'm done being depressed. Life is a comedy, and baseball is patient. There are long games, long road trips, and long seasons. I've decided that this is "big picture perspective" week. We'll see what happens."

Since then, actually, I think that the Cubs have played four games in a row now just about as good as I could expect. This isn't Cubfan delusion talking, either, even though they only won 3 of the 4. Let me explain.

On Sunday morning, here's what I was thinking: after Maddux beat Clemens, the Cubs lost six in a row on freak chances, statistical aberrations and bum luck. And in each case, they have slowly but surely taken steps to fix the circumstances that led to the aberrations. After loss #1, Kerry Wood is on the shelf, resting, and studying his mechanics. Rumors are circulating that he's spending a lot of time studying film, looking for inconsistencies and problems in his delivery. After loss #2, when Prior gave up the grand slam and got rattled, he's managed to pitch out of jams in successive games. I'm certain he's learned something from that inning in Houston.

After loss #3, when Zambrano got no run support, it felt like just one of those games, but it soon became clear that the lineup couldn't attack RBI opportunities properly. Not long after, Dusty adjusted the lineup by putting Patterson at the top. Normally I would be against this because I think Corey has what it takes to produce big hits in the middle of the lineup, but this game demonstrated that right now the Cubs need someone who can get RBIs at the top of the order, and Hairston is not that guy. Since loss #4, when Novoa walked in Damien Miller, Novoa is back in the minor leagues and the bullpen has seen an overhaul. (More on that in a second.) After losses #5 & #6, when Hawkins lost a pair on tough breaks (a bloop single that landed next to Jerry Hairston and a throw to first that bounced off of Offerman's helmet), Hawkins was appropriately demoted.

Looking back, it was an almost comical run of losses. More importantly, it never seemed like the team got angry about them -- probably because it felt more like fate than earned punishment. Every game had an "If only..." moment. Every game was just a bit too weird to feel familiar, so each one felt unreal. As a result, everyone remained somewhat complacent because bad luck is always due to turn around tomorrow.

Then there was loss number 7, where after a late-inning walk by Mike Wuertz, and an error by Ramirez a single put the game mostly out of reach, 4 to 1. This one felt different than the first six, and not just because we were nearing the end of our rope. This was the game where guts and effort weren't good enough, and there was nowhere heavenward to assign blame. Glendon Rusch went out and gutted out as much as he could, and then Wellemeyer kept the Cubs in the game. In fact, going in to the ninth inning the bullpen had retired all 10 batters it had faced. This was a game where the lineup should have picked up the pitchers because the pitchers gave them absolutely everything they could. The lineup didn't pick them up, and it had nothing to do with bad luck. They had a chance in the 8th inning to turn the game, and Lee & Ramirez successively struck out.

This is the kind of a moment where -- with good teams -- something snaps, anger and accountability set in, and they look to start winning. It's a moment that marks an attitude shift. Certain kinds of losses will do this. I sat down Sunday looking for a sign that something was different. Over the next 4 games, I got it.

First, Zambrano came out and threw a complete game, overpowering the Phillies right through the ninth inning. He was calm and collected, and utterly focused. He was not going to allow fate the opportunity to show its hand.

Second, Dusty surprised me by starting Leicster. For the first ten seconds after I heard this, I thought "Oh god. Dusty, here we go again." Then it hit me: this was a throw-away game. This was a flier. A small bet on a longshot. You start Leicster and take your chances because this way you're positioned to win the next two, and more importantly you're positioned for the next week. It hit me that maybe Dusty didn't expect to win this one, but he recognized that if he sacrificed a pitcher to try to win this game, he'd be sabotaging the next few games (or more). It couldn't be Dempster, because he had to shore up the bullpen -- he needed to demonstrate that he would shore up the bullpen -- and while it's clear that Dempster isn't a brilliant closer yet you have to admit that you feel more confident with him out there late in the game than you would with anyone else who is a candidate. At least I do.

It's tempting to criticize, but many times critics are just blowing hot air because at the time, there's no better option at hand. It's easy to point out strategic flaw, but it's harder to recommend a better strategy. There was no one but Leicster. To top it off, the Cubs actually came back and tied it late in the game. They had a chance to cash in on the longshot. Sure, it would have been nice, but are you really all that disappointed when you bet on a 15-1 longshot and he loses? You sigh, and then you chalk it up.

Third, Maddux threw a gem. I mentioned in the first inning out in the bleachers that Maddux must have been stewing through that losing streak, getting pissed off and consequently focused, thinking to himself that he was sick of losing and that he would go out and take no prisoners. Sure enough, he struck out 10 batters for the first time since 2003, leaving them with 0 runs and 3 hits when he left in the seventh.

Fourth, Prior threw another gem. This was a bit of a freakish game, but the Cubs didn't play like they were sitting back and waiting for something to happen -- good or bad -- like they did during the losing streak. They hustled, and when (the Mets') Zambrano gave them a break with a hit batsman, a balk, a wild pitch and a walk to Prior, they cashed it in. They looked hungry. Dempster blew the save, but he came back out and pitched the 10th effectively, throwing strikes. They loaded the bases in the ninth, trying to pick Dempster up, and then Lee battled for 10 pitches before crushing the 11th pitch as hard as he could hit a baseball. These things would not have happened a week ago because the effort and intensity weren't there yet. There was no complacency. Even for Lee, there was not this level of focus.

So I'm not panicking. The signs are there. This team is showing that it can win.

Hopefully Dempster isn't seriously hurt, because with him the bullpen is greatly improved. Someone has to start teaching him how to work from the bullpen, starting by emphasizing the pitches that he can use effectively and quickly (fastball, split finger, occasional changeup) until he learns to throw the curve or slider for strikes without wasting pitches trying to find his release point. This should help get rid of the problem he has with walks. Past that he could do just fine. Either way, the character of the bullpen looks a lot better with someone like Dempster at the end, and with Remlinger, Wellemeyer and Wuertz sitting in supporting roles for which they are pretty well-suited. Ohman & Bartosh aren't bad either as situational lefties.

Relief pitching was only half of the problem, though. The Brewers are winning because they've demonstrated adequacy in all four areas: starting pitching, relief pitching, lineup and defense. They don't excel at any of these areas -- or at least they don't dominate -- but it's a balanced attack, and that will keep you at .500 or better. The Cubs have had great starting pitching and defense, but poor relief pitching (which they've addressed as best as they possibly could) and poor production from the lineup.

There we have it. Now we wait and see how the lineup responds. Walker isn't too far away, which will scatter some much needed RBIs around. Dubois is getting more at-bats. Patterson will continue to hit lead-off. Barrett has started hitting well. Any one of these things could coax the extra run or two they need to win the sort of close games they've lost. Or maybe Ramirez or Hollandsworth gets hot. With Rolen & Isringhausen hurt, St. Louis looks just a bit less imposing as they head out on a 10 day road trip. Any or all of these things could help the Cubs begin a move. I'm not saying they're going to rattle off a huge winning streak (although they could) but they ought to be able to gain a game or two on St. Louis by this time next week, and that could be enough to get them used to playing with intensity and urgency. That's what they need. From there? I guess we'll see.