Opening Day

They really ought to make this a holiday.

I mean, other than Christmas, what day do we look forward to more than the opening day of the baseball season? Six months of the year we mark the time with baseball and it all starts today. (Except for the Yankees and the Red Sox, but they don't count because we hate them.) Today we concentrate on the immediate future: summer and fun and parties, and walking outside, drinking in the afternoon sun watching girls wearing short shorts and sunglasses (Jackie O-style seems in this year), and evenings on the deck, and of course the crack of the bat. Even in the games they play in a dome, the bat doesn't crack with the right sound like it does in the spring sun. I think that scientists could measure this if they had to, but there's no need since if you've experienced an early season game on a warm day you know what I'm talking about.



For the Cubs, this season offers a unique blend of hope and dread. I was talking about the team with my father on Saturday, and since he's a math teacher and a natural statistician, I thought I could impress him with an observation. (Not likely, since his memory is so good that I've watched him play along to sports trivia shows on TV without missing more than a question for an entire show. Just for fun, on Easter weekend he & my brother quizzed each other on how many players they could name from the undefeated Indiana team; they had the whole starting lineup in about 2 seconds. This is how he dissects the world, and it humbles me.) My observation is that I could not think of another example of a team like the Cubs, whose lineup is full of guys trying to string together 3 consistent seasons.



I mean, the standard deviations on these guys' numbers are through the roof. Corey Patterson hasn't had one fully good season yet, let alone 3 in a row. Todd Walker & Michael Barrett haven't been everyday starters more than 1 of the last 3 seasons. Nomar & Hollandsworth & Hairston Jr. have been hurt. Ramirez had great seasons in 2001 & 2004, but 2002 & 2003 weren't stellar. Burnitz either. Only Derek Lee has strung together 3 straight seasons of consistent numbers that would let us (statistically) project his output for 2005 with confidence.



Same for the pitchers. In fact, for the pitchers it doesn't makes sense to calculate the numbers because there isn't enough information there to use in order to project numbers for a full season. Zambrano is too young, Prior & Wood haven't pitched full seasons, neither has Rusch, and Dempster has been hurt. Only Maddux has 3 straight seasons of numbers to use, and he's 38.



Just a few spot-check examples: Ramirez batting average over the last 3 seasons has a standard deviation of 25 points. Burnitz' RBI numbers have a standard deviation of 28 for the last 3 seasons. (Burnitz' strikeouts? Only 11.5 -- not good when your averaging 123 K's. Even a deviation in the right direction means 111 Ks.) Then, other than Lee, the rest of the guys don't have 3 full seasons to calculate, just like the pitchers. What other team has so few guys that have been everyday players for 3 seasons in a row? (Just 3 seasons!) None of the other contendors, that's for sure.



What that means is that by the numbers we have no idea what to project for this team. If these guys all put up numbers toward the good end of their range, they can be a spectacular team. Yet how can we be confident that any one of them will produce -- let alone most of them -- when they don't have 3 consistent seasons of production behind them? Isn't recent history our only reliable indicator?



If anyone is projecting this team to make the playoffs, then, it isn't because of statistical trends. It's because of potential, and the Cubs do have that. They are also playing with a lot to prove, both as individuals and as a team. When sports writers talk about the intangibles, this is what they mean: reasons we might expect a team to outperform its statistical projections, and translate that into wins.



In the case of the Cubs, it's a team loaded with guys whose numbers we can't even confidently project. Still, we have every reason to be hopeful. It's a season full of what-ifs, and there's no way around that. But if you have to bank on potential and possibility, at least it should come partnered with talent and motivation. The whole lineup can hit, and there's no gaps in the defense that they can't (mostly) hide. We all know about the pitching, and how they can dominate. What remains to be seen is the level of motivation, and nothing works to motivate like a strong start. That's why this year's opening day seems especially important, because I figure this team absolutely has to start strong out of the gate to have a chance to win the division. We can't settle for a .500 April, even if Wood & Prior miss a few starts and come back healthy after that. It's the lineup that can't take a slow start.