Nervously Chewing A Toothpick

One of the funniest lines in the bleachers last Friday was in the twelfth inning, when a bleacher season ticket holder suggested that, “They need to bring Bobby Valentine back into the league so there’s at least one guy Dusty can out-manage.” That seems a bit harsh, especially since Lloyd McClendon is in the league, but on the other hand, I was the first one screaming at Dusty Baker for double-switching Nomar Garciaparra out of an extra inning game. No double-switch made sense, I said, but even if you stupidly decide to double-switch at least bring Todd Walker in for Jerry Hairston.



Seven games in, at 3-4, I have to wonder, “Do we really trust Dusty?”



(I just realized that this reads an awful lot like a Carrie Bradshaw column, leading with a quasi-hypothetical question.)

There are basically three areas in which we judge a manager: lineup, substitutions, and bullpen. Seven games in, it seems time to consider how Dusty’s done. While I think it’s too early to really judge, here are my observations.

Lineup
If not for the injury to Walker, Dusty would have had the same lineup 6 of the first 7 games. Last year I don’t think Dusty used the same lineup more than twice in a row, ever. Maybe thrice. That’s it.

I’m in favor of the consistent lineup, especially if you have a lot of mentally strong hitters – guys that seem to guess the pitch well rather than guys that just react. Even with reaction hitters I’d like to see guys used consistently so that they can develop good habits hitting in certain spots. But even so, this team is not a lineup of mental hitters. Nomar & Aramis Ramirez are first pitch and 2-strike hitters, Corey Patterson & Jeremy Burnitz are strikeout artists, and Walker is a free swinger. Only Derrek Lee, and maybe Todd Hollandsworth & Michael Barrett work the count. (I can’t say about Hairston or Neifi Perez yet, substituting for Walker.) So in this case, maybe you might move the lineup around based on who’s hot. Maybe you move Nomar down to 6th today and move Ramirez, Burnitz & Lee each up a spot. I don’t think these guys would pull the Sammy Sosa “respect” whine act. Just a thought, and maybe I’d jump on Dusty for giving up on Nomar so fast, and well ‘how would Nomar respond to that?’ but today the lineup just didn’t come through and the Cubs can’t win that way, especially with the wind blowing in.

As for using the right guys: how must Hairston have felt today? Finally, he gets a chance to be the everyday starter with Walker hurt, only to be subbed out for Neifi Perez? That has to suck. Dusty is supposed to have a knack for getting more out of his utility guys, so we’ll see if his plan with Hairston fires him up or just backfires.

Depending on Hairston’s game tomorrow, I’ll wait to score Dusty on this one until after one more game. It will be a B if Hairston hits well, a C- if he doesn’t. This is a significant piece of the lineup, and I would have liked Dusty to play Hairston today if he’s going to be hitting regularly against right-handers.

(If he doesn’t bat Hairston except against lefties, I’ll be ticked. He doesn’t remember the Ramon Martinez lesson? Some guys produce better off the bench, and struggle when they’re the regular starter. Although now that I think about it, maybe it’s about feeling pressure, because late in the season all bets are off with these guys. Guys like Martinez & Perez & Tom Goodwin have responded well in pressure situations for the Cubs the last few years.)

Substitutions
The double-switch for Nomar in the extra-inning game last Friday was inexcusable. Forget my ‘even if’: it’s just plain stupid to double-switch here. You do not have a better hitter in your lineup than Nomar. Why would you take his bat out of the lineup in extra innings? He had just gotten a hit, too. There is no good reason to pull him. That was awful managing. That was as bad as when I traded a Bo Jackson rookie card for a Tim Pyznarski "Future Stars" rookie card in 1987. (TP: 10 hits in 42 career at bats, 0 RBI.)

Actually, the only good double-switch in the whole lineup is Dubois for Hollandsworth or vice versa if his counterpart strikes out to end an inning, since each of these guys can hit. Other than that, you’re downgrading the lineup for no gain on defense, at every spot. So far though, Dusty has been a double-switch enthusiast, as usual. Of course, it hasn’t helped that these decisions are magnified in close games.

I’m giving dusty a D with a needs improvement footnote in the report card margin.

Bullpen
On Friday, Dusty hung Jon Leicster out to dry, leaving him at the end of the bullpen to throw over fifty pitches in almost 3 innings. Leicster, is not a long-reliever. Todd Wellemeyer can do it, and certainly Glendon Rusch, but Dusty used these guys quickly, blitzing through his pen. I was not happy about this. I shouldn’t have to wonder whether Nomar or Jose Macias will have to pitch the 13th inning because we're out of pitchers.

Plus, we should consider when he left Kerry Wood in with the bases loaded when he looked out of gas. I have to admit that this is second-guessing on my part because at the time my instinct was to stand up and cheer for Wood realizing that I would be pissed if Dusty pulled him, but Wood gave up the walk. If you pull Wood and the reliever gets an out, you forget that you were mad pretty quickly. That was probably a no-win for Dusty, so I won’t rant.

Sunday I thought he might have pulled Maddux too early. The wind was blowing in, stronger every ten minutes, which works in Maddux’s favor. Yet a win’s a win, so I probably shouldn’t bring this example up.

Plus, on the other hand, Mike Remlinger, Michael Wuertz, Chad Fox, Rusch and Cliff Bartosh have all thrown great. Only Leicster, Wellemeyer & ‘Latoya’ Hawkins have been bad. Other than 'Latoya,' the bullpen hasn’t been responsible in any of the losses, or any lead changes. 7 games in, that’s great.

I’m giving Dusty a B.

* * *

Baseball at its best is tactics and strategy and art and design.

With all of this, it’s becoming clear that this is a team that will require a strong performance from its manager. That’s why I bring this up, to get everyone thinking about Dusty Baker. This team's character requires a strong manager. This Cubs team will play a lot of close games. Strong starting performances will make it difficult to know when to pull the pitcher. A lineup like this one only scores enough extra runs when multiple guys get hot at once, threatening more innings than not, and Dusty needs to figure out how to cultivate the momentum. (So far the Cubs have threatened in enough innings in only 1 game out of 7.) I guess I’m figuring that over the long haul it’s not going to get any easier. I hope Dusty knows what he’s doing. So far I'm a little nervous.